David Carlin’s Weekly Digest – 10-14 Nov 2025 (COP Week 1)
After 1 week, we've seen some progress, but most of the big decisions will come down to the deadline. Here are some of the best reports and resources released this week!
Hi All,
The first week of COP 30 is concluding in Belém. There’s still so much to do. We’ve put together some guidance on the key texts as well as some of the biggest reports coming out of Belem.
This Week at a Glance
Carbon Brief COP 30 Negotiation Tracker – A guide to the 117 negotiation tracks shaping decisions on adaptation, finance, transparency and the future of the COP process.
IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 – Clean energy growth continues despite geopolitical divergence, with electrification rising sharply and grids emerging as the central bottleneck.
WBCSD Global Circularity Protocol – A new global framework to measure, manage and communicate business circularity, aligning corporate action with climate, nature and resource goals.
Global Carbon Budget 2025 – Fossil emissions hit another record high even as land-use emissions fall; the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is now equivalent to just four years.
COP30 Circle of Finance Ministers Report – A comprehensive case for scaling climate finance in emerging economies, with public guarantees highlighted as a key catalyst for private capital.
Carbon Brief COP30 Negotiation Tracker
Carbon Brief has released a comprehensive tracker that maps every negotiating text under discussion at COP30. With more than 110 agenda items in play, the summit in Belém is shaping up to be one of the most complex climate negotiations to date. The tracker provides a searchable, real-time view of each text, including its status, level of disagreement, number of outstanding brackets, and the stage of drafting.
Key texts cover issues such as the global goal on adaptation, the design of future climate finance systems, Article 6 carbon market rules, and the debate over reforming the COP process itself. Several agenda items remain contentious, including calls from the Like-Minded Developing Countries to address trade measures and developed country finance obligations.
For negotiators, observers, and businesses trying to understand how discussions are evolving, the tracker offers a clear window into the dynamics shaping COP30 outcomes.
David’s take
This tool is valuable for anyone seeking clarity on what COP30 will deliver. For business and finance leaders, the tracker highlights where policy direction remains uncertain and where agreement is beginning to take shape. Some of my highlights:
Adaptation is emerging as a central workstream, with implications for disclosure, risk management, and investment planning.
Debates over finance architecture and Article 6 directly affect market mechanisms, offset access, and transition investment flows.
Questions about reforming the COP process will influence how predictable and coordinated future climate policymaking becomes.
Firms should know that texts under negotiation at COP 30 will shape the future regulatory and market environment. This is the moment to engage, anticipate, and prepare.
IEA World Energy Outlook 2025
The IEA’s 2025 World Energy Outlook finds that clean energy deployment continues to accelerate despite growing divergence in global policy signals. Solar and wind are meeting most of the world’s new electricity demand, and global clean energy investment has risen to half of all energy investment. Electricity consumption is projected to grow by 40 to 50 percent by 2035, driven by transport, heating, and industrial electrification.
The report warns that electricity grids are becoming a major constraint. Investment in generation has surged while grid investment has lagged, creating bottlenecks that slow project development and connections.
China’s dominance in critical mineral refining now presents a new form of energy security risk. China controls roughly 70 percent of global refining capacity across key battery and clean energy minerals.
The IEA projects that coal and oil demand will likely peak before 2030, while gas demand continues to rise into the 2030s. Under stated policies, the world remains on a trajectory of roughly 2.5 degrees of warming, and overshoot of 1.5 degrees is considered unavoidable.
At the same time, the IEA stresses that rapid decarbonization is achievable with strong policy frameworks, predictable investment environments, and accelerated expansion of clean grids, efficiency, and transition finance.
David’s take
The report reinforces that the global energy transition is progressing. Electrification is surging across all major economies, and renewables are winning on cost, technology, and deployment speed. However, grid investment, permitting reform, and supply chain diversification remain critical bottlenecks.
For businesses, this outlook has two big, strategic implications.
First, investment opportunities in electrification, flexibility, storage, and grid modernization will grow substantially. The next decade will be defined less by generation capacity and more by system integration.
Second, the IEA’s warnings on critical minerals indicate that supply chain resilience must be treated as part of climate strategy, not as a secondary concern.
The message is clear. Technology, economics, and markets are aligned for rapid progress, but policy clarity and capital mobilization remain essential to deliver the transition at speed.
WBCSD launches Global Circularity Protocol for Business
The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), together with the UNEP-hosted One Planet Network, has released the first Global Circularity Protocol for Business (GCP). The protocol establishes a standardized, globally applicable framework for measuring and managing circularity performance across companies of all sizes and sectors. It provides a structured, step-by-step approach to framing, preparing, measuring, managing and communicating progress on circularity, integrating material flow tracking with impacts on climate, nature, equity and business performance.
GCP v1.0 aligns with major sustainability reporting frameworks, including GRI, ISO 59020, ESRS and IFRS S1/S2, and builds on WBCSD’s Circular Transition Indicators. It offers flexibility in application—from individual materials to entire portfolios—and allows organizations to advance through progressive levels of circular performance assessment. The protocol was co-developed with input from more than 150 experts across business, policy and science, giving it strong technical and market credibility.
This first version provides the foundational methodologies and indicators needed for companies to begin measuring and improving circularity in a comparable, decision-useful manner. Future iterations are expected to deepen integration with financial and ESG reporting, supporting greater harmonization as circularity becomes a core component of corporate strategy and disclosure.
David’s take
Circularity is rapidly moving from a sustainability concept to a central business strategy, and WBCSD’s protocol gives organizations a practical pathway to operationalize it. This work matters because circularity is one of the few areas where environmental gains and financial value creation naturally align: reduced waste, lower material inputs, and improved resource efficiency all strengthen the bottom line. A structured and standardized approach also helps procurement teams and senior leaders identify where circularity can unlock cost savings and resilience across supply chains. As companies look for ways to drive competitiveness in a resource-constrained world, circularity will increasingly become a core determinant of long-term performance.
Global Carbon Budget 2025: Emissions Hit Another Record
The Global Carbon Project’s 20th annual Global Carbon Budget shows that fossil-fuel and cement emissions will rise again in 2025, up roughly 1.1% to a record 38.1 GtCO₂. Total global emissions remain effectively flat at 42.2 GtCO₂ due to a near-10% fall in land-use emissions, driven largely by reductions in deforestation in South America.
Land and ocean carbon sinks appear to have recovered from two weak El Niño-affected years, but longer-term analysis shows a concerning trend: climate impacts have weakened natural sinks by roughly 15% over the past decade compared with a world without human-driven warming. This has contributed about 8% of atmospheric CO₂ accumulation since 1960. Atmospheric CO₂ will reach an estimated 425.7 ppm in 2025, 52% above pre-industrial levels.
Emissions trends across major economies are mixed. China and India are expected to see far lower emissions growth than in previous years, reflecting rapid renewable deployment and changing energy demand patterns. The US and EU, however, are both projected to see emissions increase in 2025 after periods of decline, influenced by weather, fuel-switching dynamics, and energy demand.
The report also highlights that the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is now virtually exhausted (equivalent to only four years of current global emissions). Budgets for 1.7°C and 2°C would be used up within roughly 12 and 25 years respectively, underscoring the pace of mitigation needed to keep climate goals in reach.
Despite the sobering numbers, the past decade has seen a marked slowdown in emissions growth: total CO₂ emissions have risen just 0.3% per year since 2014, compared with 1.9% annually in the decade before.
David’s take
This year’s Global Carbon Budget reinforces a stubborn reality: we remain on a trajectory of record emissions at precisely the moment when deep and sustained reductions are required to stabilize the climate. The marginal slowdown in emissions growth over the past decade shows that system-level changes are underway, but we have not yet crossed the threshold where global emissions begin to fall decisively.
We need to bend emissions all the way to net zero. Achieving that requires every sector of the global economy to align around rapid decarbonization, commercialization of emerging technologies, and structural shifts in land use and resource management. The opportunity now is to accelerate the transition while building economic resilience before the remaining carbon budget closes entirely.
COP30 Circle of Finance Ministers: Closing the Climate Finance Gap for Emerging Economies
The COP30 Circle of Finance Ministers has released one of the most comprehensive assessments to date of the global climate finance system—and the scale of investment needed to deliver the Paris and Kunming-Montreal goals. The analysis highlights profound imbalances in current financial flows, with only 10% of global climate finance reaching emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) and less than 5% going toward adaptation. This falls far short of the USD 2.4–3.3 trillion per year EMDEs will require by 2030–2035 for mitigation, resilience, loss and damage, nature protection, and just transitions.
The report highlightsthat adaptation finance remains chronically under-supplied, despite clear evidence that well-designed resilience investments deliver avoided losses, economic returns, and social benefits. Nature-based solutions face similar gaps, with required financing needing to more than double by 2030.
On the mitigation side, the analysis is unequivocal: clean technologies are now cheaper than fossil fuels in most regions, with 91% of new renewable projects in 2024 outperforming fossil alternatives. Renewables saved nearly USD 470 billion in avoided fuel costs last year alone, demonstrating that climate finance is increasingly aligned with energy economics.
At the macroeconomic level, the report warns that failing to scale climate finance would have severe long-term economic consequences. Under current policies, global GDP could be 15% lower by mid-century; with 3°C of warming by 2100, losses could reach 30% of global GDP. In contrast, accelerating green investment—1–2% of GDP in advanced economies and 3–5% in EMDEs—could drive growth, create millions of jobs, and enhance energy and financial stability.
David’s take
The Circle of Finance Ministers’ report brings needed clarity at a pivotal moment in global climate governance. Finance is increasing, but nowhere near fast enough. particularly for adaptation and resilience, where underinvestment today becomes systemic economic loss tomorrow. The world has a strong interest (both economic and moral) in helping vulnerable nations avoid climate destabilization.
On transition finance, emerging economies now drive the majority of future emissions, yet they still lack the affordable capital needed to build green infrastructure instead of locking in new fossil assets. Without meaningful reform in how risk is assessed and shared, the world cannot reach net zero.
Public finance must serve as a catalyst, crowding in commercial investment through guarantees, blended structures, and risk-sharing mechanisms that reflect the economic fundamentals of the energy transition. With clean energy now the cheapest option in most markets, the barrier is no longer technology but finance architecture. COP30 offers an opportunity to realign that architecture toward a pathway that is equitable, investable, and consistent with long-term global prosperity.
Enjoyed this analysis? D. A. Carlin & Co helps clients navigate these turbulent times through strategic briefings, practical capacity-building workshops, and regulatory support. Book a call with us today (info@dacarlin.com) and find out how we can give you and your team the future-ready skills and strategies you need.